How futures become an implied opening price, what the charts show, and how we measure the result.
01 / Market indicesFrom futures to fair value
Index futures trade while the cash market is closed. Their price includes financing and expected dividends up to the contract’s expiry. The cost-of-carry model removes those effects to estimate the index’s current fair value.
Before the cash session, that value is the implied open for the date shown. During the session, it is current fair value. After the close, the headline advances to the next trading session.
The futures relationshipRearranged for the implied open - F
- Current futures price
- r
- Annual risk-free rate in the index’s currency
- q
- Annual dividend yield used by the model
- t
- Time to the quoted contract’s expiry, in years
Actual trades outside the bell
Stock cards show regular-session or extended-hours trading prices, rather than a futures-based prediction. Pre-market normally runs from 04:00 to 09:30 ET, and post-market from 16:00 to 20:00 ET; exchange holidays and shortened sessions affect availability.
Extended-hours trading can have lower volume and wider spreads. The session label identifies the quote being shown, while the change is measured against the relevant close.
Reading the chart
The solid line shows history. On index charts, the dashed cyan segment connects to today’s fair-value estimate. Shading identifies extended sessions, lunch breaks and gaps. A rebased futures overlay is an index-equivalent series, not an actual cash trade.
03 / Metals & energyRead the forward curve
Commodity cards compare the front and back futures contracts. Each contract’s month and price is shown so you can see the curve directly.
- Contango
- The back contract costs more than the front contract.
- Backwardation
- The back contract costs less than the front contract.
Financing, storage, insurance and immediate supply all affect this spread. Storage costs are estimates, and expiry rules differ by commodity. A rising curve does not by itself predict a rising spot price.
04 / Accuracy trackerCompare the estimate with the open
The tracker compares the stored pre-open prediction with the actual opening reference. Its large number is the absolute percentage miss on the date shown; RIGHT WAY or WRONG WAY reports whether the predicted direction was correct.
- MAE · 7D / 30D
- Average absolute miss over the trailing 7 or 30 calendar days.
- Bias
- Signed average error: positive means predictions ran high; negative means they ran low.
- N & direction history
- N counts scored sessions. The colored boxes and percentage describe the displayed direction sample. Low-confidence sessions are excluded.
Several indices settle gradually after the bell, so their reference is the level about 15 minutes into the session. Nasdaq uses its initial open; KOSPI uses its official auction print when available.
05 / Freshness & uncertaintyKnow what is live
Green LIVE indicates a current connection or quote. The stream, individual quotes and chart history have separate freshness checks. An older or fallback quote stays labeled; a failed chart refresh keeps the last valid history with a warning.
The 1σ cone converts each market’s annualized implied volatility into an indicative daily range using √252. It is not a calibrated interval for the opening prediction’s error.
News between the saved prediction and the opening reference can move the market. Use the date, source and sample size alongside the headline estimate.
Read model limitations →